While Mexico's structured finance has ground to a halt amid the generalized anxiety in the debt markets, Standard & Poor's offered a few forecasts for the market
The agency expects RMBS growth this year to come largely from commercial banks and state originator Infonavit. Before last year, nonback institutions known as Sofols nearly monopolized the market along with Infonavit.
But HSBC Mexico and BBVA Bancomer changed that, with deals that surpassed Ps5 billion ($465 million) in total during 2007. Nevertheless, S&P expects Sofols to continue issuing, and to perhaps venture into new terrain by signing on to the Danish mortgage model that had its local premiere in December. The agency also sees potential in time tranching - with a senior tranche divvied into different durations - and possibly covered bonds and synthetic deals.
RMBS accounted for 35% of the $7.1 billion in Mexican domestic securitization issuance reported by S&P. The agency's overall figure dovetails with ASR's (2/4/08).
The consensus appears to be that credit issues still aren't a problem in the country's mortgage sector, according sources. "There isn't a concern [particular] to the sector," said a source at a mortgage originator. "What we have are strong liquidity problems in the markets." There hasn't been an RMBS issue since December, but other sectors of the domestic market are also paralyzed.
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