JPMorgan might have priced its $1.3 billion, new-issue conduit CMBS called JPMCC 2012-CBX tighter than initial price talk. However, this deal will not be enough to boost issuance up to volume levels predicted at the start of 2012, FTN Financial analysts said in a report this week.
Kevin Howell, an FTN CMBS analyst, said that the updated forecast for CMBS volume is now $27 billion. "I would say that the main factor slowing down volume growth this year has been the increased spread volatility and the lack of an effective hedge for issuers," he said in an emailed statement to ASR.
FTN at the start of the year predicted volumes in the sector would reach $30 billion. However, the current pace of new issuance means that CMBS numbers are likely to be lower in 2012.
The JPMorgan deal brings the tally for year-to-date private label CMBS issuance to $12 billion, according to figures reported by FTN. It priced the A-1, A-2, and A-3 tranches five basis points tighter than guidance levels and the A-4 tranche pricing five basis points wider than expected at 150 basis points over swaps.
