The upcoming March remittance report is expected to show favorable seasonal effects, which should help slow the growth of delinquencies over the month.
For example, Barclays Capital expect serious delinquencies to increase by 50 basis points to 70 basis points for the 06 series, and 90 to 190 basis points for the 07 series, a smaller rise than the previous month.
Given one fewer business day in March versus February, analysts from Barclays believe CDRs should remain flat or slightly decline for the 06 series with a shrinking REO bucket, and post a moderate rise of 50 to 70 basis points for the 07 series with a slightly increased REO bucket this month.
Without a sufficient agency eligible population to lift voluntary prepayment speeds, CRR should continue to decline across the four ABX indices. Series 07-2 is coming off the peak of first rate reset and should post the largest decrease in voluntary prepayments.
