Economic headwinds continue to cast doubts on housing growth over the next year, according to reports from Fannie Mae and the Mortgage Bankers Association.
In its most recent June forecast, Fannie Mae predicted a total of 4.82 million home sales in 2025, a slight decrease from
Fannie Mae also softened its outlook on mortgage originations to $1.90 trillion in volume this year, which would be a 12.8% increase from 2024's total. For 2026, it predicted $2.28 trillion. Both numbers are slightly lower than what the company predicted a month ago.
These numbers are more bullish than the MBA, which put out its own forecast last week. The MBA estimated that around 4.93 million total homes will be sold this year, which was a slight downward revision from May. The MBA also said about $2 trillion in mortgage originations this year, mostly unchanged from May.
Fannie Mae expects refinancing to make up 25% of those mortgages this year while MBA's forecast calls for 39%.
Fannie still expects to see mortgage rates fall, calling for the 30-year fixed rate to be 6.5% at the end of 2025 and 6.1% at the end of 2026. These are slightly higher numbers than what the government-sponsored enterprise forecasted last month, but still lower than rates have been recently. As of June 18, the 30-year fixed-rate mortgage was around 6.81%, according to Freddie Mac's most recent survey, down 6 basis points from a year earlier.
The MBA, in contrast, anticipates mortgage rates will end the year at 6.7% before dropping to around 6.4% at the end of 2026.
The revisions reflect increasing pessimism about the housing market. Although home prices
