National home prices, including distressed sales, declined by 7.8% in October 2009 compared with October 2008, according to First American CoreLogic and its LoanPerformance Home Price Index (HPI).

This was an improvement over September's year-over-year price decline of 9.5%. On a month-over-month basis, national home prices declined by 0.7% in October 2009 compared with September 2009. When distressed sales are taken out of the equation, year-over-year prices in October fell by 5.8%.

The HPI forecast is for prices to continue to fall by an average of 4.2% in the nation's 45 largest metropolitan areas before bottoming out in March 2010. By October 2010, the forecast is for an average price appreciation of 1% in these markets.

Over the next six months, large declines in the HPI are predicted in Detroit (12.7%), Warren-Troy-Farmington Hills, Mich. (11.4%) and Cleveland (6.3%). California will see the strongest recovery next year as its three major markets, plus the state capital will all see gains: San Francisco, projected to increase 5.7%; Los Angeles, up 5.0%; San Diego, up 4.7%; and Sacramento, up 4.6%.


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