Mortgage rates

Persistent inflation concerns drove the 30-year average up 41 basis points this month.

But with rates turning back up this past week, activity could fall in February, Black Knight Optimal Blue said.

Since breaking above 7% in November, the 30-year fixed is now down nearly a full percentage point, Freddie Mac said.

But several recent news developments are creating the perception that the risk of a recession is on the wane and that could end the downward pressure on rates.

The 30-year fixed rate surged 15 basis points from a week earlier but ends 2022 at more than twice its mark from a year ago.

This year's rapid rise in mortgage rates is cooling the U.S. housing market, leading to sales declines and pressure on home prices. Other measures put the figures above 6%.

Both the 30- and 15-year averages are now more than 3 percentage points higher from their levels of one year ago.

Comments from Federal Reserve officials in Jackson Hole last week have markets bracing for further tightening of monetary policy in the near term.

Better-than-expected economic data helped lead to the steep acceleration of the 30-year average, while the 15-year also shot up.

Following their largest drop in over a decade one week ago, averages rapidly swung upward as recession talk receded.