Securitization

Home equity loan downgrades could increase by three to four times this year compared with the second half of 2006, Lehman Brothers said last week in a report. Such an increase would mean as many as 1,500 bonds could be at risk for a downgrade, given a 0% to 5% national rate of home price appreciation.

A handful of managers are tweaking RMBS deal structures in order to achieve a Moody's Investors Service triple-A rating on super senior tranches they would not be able to obtain otherwise. The structural nuances essentially burrow the so-called senior support tranche into a more subordinated position in order to protect the super senior tranche. At least for the deals that have been rated so far, the senior support tranche and other senior interest would not receive a triple-A rating per Moody's rating methodology, but that's not to say the manager could not shop around for one.

A phrase repeated so often it sounds like a broken record - that the firm managing a CDO makes a difference in its overall performance - must be falling on deaf ears, some said, as more and more new managers set up shop. While a firm classified as "new" could be run by an experienced staff, the sheer number of them entering the market has equity investors looking for a way to gauge performance.

By Jennifer San Cartier, senior director, ABS, and Stephanie Petosa, managing director, operational risk, Fitch Ratings

Full Credit to Book (Equal if Joint) U.S. Public ABS Market/144A Market Managers Proceeds (mils) Rank Mkt. Share # of Issues Citigroup 11,324.6 1 13.3 20 JP Morgan 11,150.3 2 13.1 23 Wachovia Corp 10,658.0 3 12.4 18 Barclays Capital 9,681.6 4 11.4 15 Deutsche Bank AG 7,784.8 5 9.2 17 Banc of America Securities LLC 6,637.5 6 7.8 10 Credit Suisse 4,066.8 7 4.8 8 HSBC Holdings PLC 3,971.7 8 4.7 5 Royal Bank of Scotland Group 3,644.0 9 4.3 8 Morgan Stanley 3,554.6 10 4.2 7 Industry Total 85,059.8 - 100.0 90 Source: Thomson Financial

Full Credit to Book (Equal if Joint) U.S. Public ABS Market/144A Market Managers Proceeds (mils) Rank Mkt. Share # of Issues Merrill Lynch 50,073.6 1 14.9 65 Citigroup 36,607.6 2 10.9 66 Deutsche Bank AG 30,674.1 3 9.2 63 Wachovia Corp 23,697.9 4 7.1 54 Credit Suisse 22,623.0 5 6.8 34 UBS 22,303.8 6 6.7 65 Bear Stearns & Co Inc 21,557.6 7 6.4 41 Banc of America Securities LLC 20,730.3 8 6.2 52 Morgan Stanley 19,666.3 9 5.9 71 JP Morgan 15,359.1 10 4.6 37 Industry Total 335,048.1 - 100.0 671 Source: Thomson Financial

Full Credit to Book (Equal if Joint) U.S. Public ABS Market/144A Market Managers Proceeds (mils) Rank Mkt. Share # of Issues Banc of America Securities LLC 20,720.6 1 30.9 29 Citigroup 11,982.0 2 17.8 18 JP Morgan 11,859.7 3 17.7 25 Deutsche Bank AG 4,624.9 4 6.9 13 Morgan Stanley 4,055.3 5 6.0 5 Barclays Capital 3,373.8 6 5.0 8 HSBC Holdings PLC 2,749.9 7 4.1 3 Credit Suisse 2,285.0 8 3.4 10 Merrill Lynch 1,645.0 9 2.5 6 Wachovia Corp 1,124.9 10 1.8 4 Industry Total 67,148.7 - 100.0 101 Source: Thomson Financial

Full Credit to Book (Equal if Joint) U.S. Public ABS Market/144A Market Managers Proceeds (mils) Rank Mkt. Share # of Issues JP Morgan 2,125.0 1 18.4 3 Deutsche Bank AG 1,750.0 2 15.1 3 Banc of America Securities LLC 1,554.5 3 13.4 3 Barclays Capital 1,409.5 4 12.2 2 ABN AMRO 1,250.0 5* 10.8 2 Lehman Brothers 1,250.0 5* 10.8 2 Royal Bank of Scotland Group 1,000.0 7 8.7 2 Merrill Lynch 925.0 8 8.0 2 Citigroup 300.0 9 2.6 1 Industry Total 11,564.0 - 100.0 10 Source: Thomson Financial

Full Credit to Book (Equal if Joint) U.S. Public ABS Market/144A Market Managers Proceeds (mils) Rank Mkt. Share # of Issues Lehman Brothers 68,450.3 1 11.0 166 Countrywide Securities Corp 66,904.1 2 10.8 109 Royal Bank of Scotland Group 63,037.2 3 10.2 114 Citigroup 40,622.2 4 6.6 91 Deutsche Bank AG 40,551.2 5 6.5 95 Bear Stearns & Co Inc 38,958.3 6 6.3 98 Credit Suisse 37,228.5 7 6.0 89 Merrill Lynch 37,120.4 8 6.0 55 Morgan Stanley 35,061.6 9 5.7 36 JP Morgan 32,214.8 10 5.2 72 Industry Total 619,892.6 - 100.0 1,133 Source: Thomson Financial

Full Credit to Book (Equal if Joint) U.S. Public ABS Market/144A Market Managers Proceeds (mils) Rank Mkt. Share # of Issues Citigroup 14,994.0 1 22.6 15 Deutsche Bank AG 9,079.8 2 13.7 13 Credit Suisse 6,548.1 3 9.9 10 Banc of America Securities LLC 5,301.7 4 8.0 7 Wachovia Corp 4,871.9 5 7.3 4 Morgan Stanley 4,248.4 6 6.4 6 Goldman Sachs & Co 4,150.9 7 6.2 6 Lehman Brothers 3,873.7 8 5.8 3 Merrill Lynch 3,819.9 9 5.8 4 RBC Capital Markets 2,179.0 10 3.3 4 Industry Total 66,469.7 - 100.0 47 Source: Thomson Financial

auto ABS 10% credit card ABS 8% catatrophe bonds 0% enterprise finance 0% equipment ABS 2% real estate ABS 70% structured settlements 0% student loan ABS 8% trade receivables 1% utilities ABS 0%

No longer content to watch from the sidelines, big players have officially moved into the CDPC space -and some expect they'll come to dominate it, bringing a wave of liquidity with them. Marking the first entrance of a prominent structured credit market participant, Massachusetts Mutual Life Insurance Co., parent of asset manager Babson Capital Management, officially launched its CDPC Invicta Credit LLC. last week. Deutsche Bank and AXA Investment Managers are waiting for a rating for their CDPC, NewLands Financial, and Bear Stearns and AIG Investment Management are also rumored to be hanging in the wings.

Ocean Land Investments, a Boca Raton, Fla.-based developer, has recruited United Capital Markets to underwrite and arrange a construction loan, possibly as much as $5 billion, to redevelop a 43-acre parcel of oceanfront land in Florida.

Conservative ABCP investor Mason Street Advisor, which prefers multiseller programs with the occasional auto loan ABS-backed single-seller programs, is stepping up its participation in those programs.

Mick Brown, an asset-backed commercial paper analyst whose affable demeanor impressed the industry as much as his grasp of the market he covered, died on Friday, Jan. 5. He was 46. The cause was complications from pneumonia.

The Liberty Hampshire Co. is preparing to launch the Valcour Bay Capital Co., an asset-backed commercial paper vehicle that can issue U.S. dollar-denominated CP, callable notes, and extendible notes to buy trade receivables and other financial assets.

Fitch Ratings downgraded Wirefree Partners III, LLC PCS Spectrum Lease-Backed Notes, 2005-1 to BBB', from BBB+', after taking a similar action on the unsecured corporate rating of Sprint Nextel and its subsidiaries.

The ABX.HE plummeted last week to all-time lows amid unrelenting news of issuers pulling out of the subprime mortgage market and the sour performance of loans originated in 2006. The activity - most dramatic in the triple-B tranches of the index's second series - comes on the heels of this week's emergence of the third ABX.HE series.

For a brief moment, January threatened to turn into a lollygagging month for ABS issuance, shortened by two holiday workweeks and the pending American Securitization Forum conference in Las Vegas. Then the AmeriCredit Corp.'s $1.2 billion transaction, secured by auto loans, came roaring across trading desks.

Attractive returns have always been a selling point for plan sponsors, having led many to seek solace in fixed-income. Samuel Austin, senior portfolio advisor with Seneca Capital Management contends that continues to be the case, with one slight amendment. Pension funds are now eyeing "alternative" fixed-income opportunities CLOs and CDOs.