ABS

Though investors breathed a sigh of relief after J.P. Morgan Chase announced it would amend the Chase Credit Card Master Trust, Morgan Stanley researchers theorize that the chance of an early payout still exists, due to the C class reserve accounts that may trap excess spread away from the high-coupon fixed-rate series.

Primary ABS activity remained strong last week, pricing $8.8 billion, with an additional $2 billion pending for late in the week. The auto loan collateral continued to flow into the market, accounting for $4 billion of the week's total, as issuers of amortizing assets reportedly sought to tap the market. Strong demand was reported for most issues on profit taking from the investment community, cashing in on tightening throughout the first-half and moving into par-priced new-issues.

Talk about busy days. Consumer Portfolio Services has made a habit out of being party to simultaneous closings, be it multiple securitizations, warehouse lines, mergers, or, as was the case last week, a combination of the three.

Rather than roll over and play dead in the wake of massive downgrades, market pundits are biting back. Efforts to put a leash on correlation, evidentially the beast with the longest teeth, made headway last week with the release of a new rating tool from Fitch Ratings and a new research paper from Nomura Securities aimed at alerting the market to overlooked dangers.

A suite of risk analysis tools developed by Banc of America Securities has been harnessed by Standard and Poor's Risk Solutions, a move that is being perceived, initially, as a boost to synthetic CDO ratings.

Year to date as of May 21 Term (days) 05/15 05/16 05/19 05/20 05/21 1-week

2003 2002 2001 ABS (Public and 144A) 202,344 158,414 146,588 ABS (Public and 144A excluding CDOs) 192,382 141,154 126,498 ABS (Public Only) 170,731 128,464 109,604 ABS (144A Only) 31,613 29,950 36,984 Non-Agency MBS 110,374 73,541 59,190 Agency MBS 226,709 187,660 91,137 CMBS 22,591 17,643 22,449 Source: Thomson Financial

Full Credit to Book (Equal if Joint) U.S. Public ABS Market/144A Market Managers Proceeds (mils) Rank Mkt. Share # of Issues Citigroup 3,424.4 1 14.6 4 Credit Suisse First Boston 3,129.1 2 13.3 7 Deutsche Bank AG 3,019.2 3 12.9 6 JP Morgan 2,618.8 4 11.2 4 Banc of America Securities LLC 2,252.8 5 9.6 4 BANK ONE Corp 2,112.3 6 9.0 4 Morgan Stanley 1,781.2 7 7.6 3 Goldman Sachs & Co 1,289.4 8 5.5 3 Barclays Capital 1,180.4 9 5.0 2 Wachovia Corp 1,087.4 10 4.6 4 Merrill Lynch & Co Inc 744.5 11 3.2 2 Lehman Brothers 445.5 12 1.9 1 Royal Bank of Scotland Group 287.5 13 1.2 2 Westdeutsche Landesbank Giro 120.2 14 0.5 1 Industry Total 23,492.6 - 100.0 29 Source: Thomson Financial

Full Credit to Book (Equal if Joint) U.S. Public ABS Market/144A Market Managers Proceeds (mils) Rank Mkt. Share # of Issues Credit Suisse First Boston 1,650.9 1 16.6 5 Deutsche Bank AG 1,461.5 2 14.7 3 Bear Stearns & Co Inc 1,270.7 3 12.8 5 Citigroup 1,047.6 4 10.5 3 Wachovia Corp 950.0 5 9.5 2 Banc of America Securities LLC 579.8 6 5.8 2 Westdeutsche Landesbank Giro 545.0 7 5.5 1 Morgan Stanley 478.4 8 4.8 3 Lehman Brothers 368.4 9 3.7 3 JP Morgan 347.6 10 3.5 1 Merrill Lynch & Co Inc 300.8 11 3.0 1 Goldman Sachs & Co 300.0 12 3.0 1 Royal Bank of Scotland Group 283.9 13 2.9 1 UBS Warburg 200.0 14 2.0 1 Jefferies & Co Inc 161.4 15 1.6 1 First Republic Bank Corp 16.0 16 0.2 1 Industry Total 9,961.9 - 100.0 32 Source: Thomson Financial

Full Credit to Book (Equal if Joint) U.S. Public ABS Market/144A Market Managers Proceeds (mils) Rank Mkt. Share # of Issues Citigroup 8,619.7 1 28.3 12 BANK ONE Corp 5,351.9 2 17.5 9 JP Morgan 4,479.3 3 14.7 9 Morgan Stanley 3,579.5 4 11.7 4 Barclays Capital 2,834.7 5 9.3 6 Banc of America Securities LLC 2,000.6 6 6.6 6 Deutsche Bank AG 1,507.6 7 4.9 4 Credit Suisse First Boston 969.3 8 3.2 3 Merrill Lynch & Co Inc 462.5 9 1.5 2 Wachovia Corp 461.3 10 1.5 2 Lehman Brothers 249.6 11 0.8 2 Industry Total 30,515.8 - 100.0 47 Source: Thomson Financial

Full Credit to Book (Equal if Joint) U.S. Public ABS Market/144A Market Managers Proceeds (mils) Rank Mkt. Share # of Issues Deutsche Bank AG 1,375.0 1 42.3 5 JP Morgan 875.0 2 26.9 4 Citigroup 500.0 3* 15.4 1 BANK ONE Corp 500.0 3* 15.4 1 Industry Total 3,250.1 - 100.0 5 Source: Thomson Financial

Full Credit to Book (Equal if Joint) U.S. Public ABS Market/144A Market Managers Proceeds (mils) Rank Mkt. Share # of Issues Lehman Brothers 14,936.3 1 13.9 35 Countrywide Securities Corp 11,824.9 2 11.0 17 Citigroup 8,646.4 3 8.1 25 JP Morgan 8,218.7 4 7.7 11 Deutsche Bank AG 8,133.0 5 7.6 17 Royal Bank of Scotland Group 8,084.0 6 7.5 20 Morgan Stanley 7,090.3 7 6.6 19 Credit Suisse First Boston 7,038.4 8 6.6 18 Banc of America Securities LLC 6,987.3 9 6.5 21 Bear Stearns & Co Inc 6,464.7 10 6.0 14 UBS Warburg 6,257.5 11 5.8 12 Merrill Lynch & Co Inc 4,241.4 12 4.0 5 BANK ONE Corp 2,400.3 13 2.2 4 Wachovia Corp 2,384.6 14 2.2 5 Goldman Sachs & Co 1,266.9 15 1.2 4 General Motors Corp 1,069.1 16 1.0 3 Barclays Capital 765.5 17 0.7 1 Industry Total 107,277.8 - 100.0 193 Source: Thomson Financial

Full Credit to Book (Equal if Joint) U.S. Public ABS Market/144A Market Managers Proceeds (mils) Rank Mkt. Share # of Issues Citigroup 3,149.7 1 23.5 5 Morgan Stanley 2,465.4 2 18.4 4 Deutsche Bank AG 2,293.1 3 17.1 4 Merrill Lynch & Co Inc 1,790.7 4 13.4 3 Credit Suisse First Boston 1,742.8 5 13.0 3 Banc of America Securities LLC 1,136.7 6 8.5 2 UBS Warburg 453.4 7 3.4 1 JP Morgan 379.6 8 2.8 1 Industry Total 13,411.2 - 100.0 12 Source: Thomson Financial

Year to date as of May 21 Coupon Type Market Average Life Buckets Asset Class Volume Pub/144A Fixed Rate Floating Rate Public 144A 0.0 to 0.9 1.0 to 2.9 3.0 to 5.9 6.0 to 7.9 8.0 to 11.0 Aircraft Leases 1,365 1,365 1,365 1,365 Asset-Back Certs Auto Loans/Recs 27,006 20,091 6,915 26,216 791 5,802 15,801 5,345 35 Cash Catastrophe Bond Commercial Loans 921 194 727 921 822 99 Corp Bond/Note 1,099 171 895 1,099 511 56 532 Corporate Loans 2,044 233 1,787 2,044 546 450 1,049 Credit Card Rec 30,516 6,987 23,529 30,160 356 7,737 3,909 17,620 750 500 Debentures 1,485 1,485 1,485 1,485 Equip Loans Equip. Leases 2,781 1,782 999 1,824 956 481 1,594 637 68 FHLMC 2,225 2,225 2,225 2,225 FNMA 3,480 1,480 1,999 3,480 2,113 1,002 221 144 Floorplan Recs 3,250 3,250 3,224 26 750 2,500 Franchisee Loans 228 228 228 109 Health Care Rec Insurance Recs 1,141 250 891 519 622 1,141 Junk Bonds 2,293 233 2,060 2,293 734 490 1,069 Legal Fees Loans 3,175 3,175 3,175 3,175 Mnfrd Housing Ct 260 140 121 260 51 146 3 45 Motorcycle Loans 550 550 550 550 Mutual Fund Fees 175 75 100 175 175 Non-Jumbo Mtg Ln 27,305 7,004 20,024 25,607 1,698 11,156 5,499 9,226 1,144 162 Non-Perf Loans Oil Contracts Preferred Sec 725 146 579 725 36 177 512 Prv Issued Sec 479 178 301 87 392 479 Rental Car Rec. 1,775 1,050 725 1,775 650 1,125 Retail Contracts Rev Cred/Home Eq 82,836 35,112 47,514 75,285 7,551 36,973 25,615 18,430 1,389 284 Sm Business Loan 254 254 254 254 Stranded Costs Struc Fin Credit 5,683 884 4,763 5,683 2,224 222 2,294 862 Student Loans 13,631 600 11,149 12,509 1,123 1,749 2,595 4,937 3,572 68 Swap Agreement Tax Liens Timeshare Loans 303 245 58 303 303 Tobacco Receives 154 154 154 154 Trade Recs Truck Loans Leases 450 450 450 Note: Figures are preliminary and subject to change. Data includes U.S. deals and dollar Euro 144As.Source: Thomson Financial

Rev Cred/Home Eq 39% Credit Card Rec 15% Non-Jumbo Mtg Ln 13% Auto Loans/Recs 11% Student Loans 7% Other 15%

Bank One Capital Markets called the move "somewhat haphazard." JPMorgan Securities called the move "sloppy in execution and bordering on reckless in terms of understanding the market impact." The Street reacted harshly to Standard & Poor's placement of 32 classes of auto lease ABS - including three that are no longer outstanding - on watch for a downgrade last Monday, due to potential exposure to federal government entity Pension Benefit Guaranty Corp. in the event of a seller bankruptcy.

The number of traditional cash CDO defaults has been widely publicized and, obviously, received widespread damage assessments. But what of credit events that factored into synthetic CDO downgrades over the last two years? Calculating and modeling for events in the world of nontangible assets is an adjustment akin to moving from the roulette wheel to the baccarat tables.

The ABS primary market exploded last week, with roughly $18 billion of supply offered to investors, As of late in the week, $12.8 billion had priced, with the remainder, primarily mortgage-related supply, scheduled to wrap up on Friday or early this week. Transactions received strong demand that led to numerous increases in size and spread tightening prior to printing. Also, the market saw a return of the auto loan sector, which priced over $5 billion, after a month of sporadic issuance.

Not surprisingly, this year is shaping up to be another slow run for the franchise sector, which has seen just two deals, both backed by nontraditional franchise loans to car dealerships, a collateral type unscathed by the headline deterioration associated with convenience store and gas station (C&G) loans. Including dealership franchise ABS, the sector could see about $700 million in deals before yearend (currently halfway there), according to an industry banker. Last year, there was just under $600 million in franchise ABS, by Thomson Financial's tally.

Almost one year after closing, 2002 ASR Breakthrough Deal of the Year (see ASR 1/6/03) Pass-Through Account Credit Card Trust (PACCT) is in relatively good shape, performing in line with base-case forecasts used to structure the transaction. Citigroup, which co-led the deal with Goldman Sachs, chronicled the progress in a report last week, noting specifics have been mixed, with chargeoffs below estimates but portfolio yield and purchase rates slightly below initial forecasts.