In the past month, the Trepp CMBS delinquency rate has been hovering within a narrow band. For the last three months, the delinquency rate has shifted back and forth only slightly higher and lower. During this process, the rate has not gone over 9.60% or below 9.50%.
Trepp said that in the last 12 months, the rate has stayed within a range of just over 50 basis points. In this stretch, the highest level was 9.88% in July 2011 while the lowest was 9.37% in June 2011.
Last month the delinquency rate for U.S. commercial real estate loans backing CMBS fell six basis points to 9.52%.
The CMBS data provider noted late last year that improvements in the delinquency rate would be hard to come by specifically in the first six months of this year. The firm was concerned that the first wave of 2007-originated loans that would reach their balloon dates in early January would not be able to refinance and believed that this would push the delinquency rate higher.
However, according to Trepp, only 27% of 2007 loans managed to pay off. In fact, the data provider said that if one takes out a big Manhattan office loan that was refinanced with the help of a borrower that funded the cash shortfall, the total payoff percentage would have been only 15%.
But, that alone was not sufficient to push the delinquency rate higher. This upward pressure was offset partly by roughly $1.6 billion in loans that were resolved with losses, which is the third highest total in the last two years, Trepp reported
More than $5 billion in loans became delinquent in January, but this number was counterbalanced by the over $3 billion in loans that were cured this past month.