According to Standard & Poor's 2012 CMBS outlook, as much as 63% of $19 billion in 2007 vintage five-year CMBS loans coming due in 2012 could fail to refinance in case borrowers are not willing to put in additional equity. The rating agency bases its estimate on the $13.3 billion of these five-year CMBS loans for which S&P has adequate net operating income data. Based on this balance, S&P expects about $7 billion to $8 billion of 2007 vintage loans to face refinancing difficulties.
S&P has come up with the 63% estimate using a maximum LTV limit of 70% for refinancing. Pushing up the LTV limit to 80%, the rating firm sees a reduced level of about 52% of the 2007 vintage loans having refinancing issues.