With the continuing rally that has brought the 10-year Treasury to below 4.60%, mortgage rates down nearly 50 basis points from July's high, and refinancing activity finally showing response to the improved rate levels, revisions are starting to show up in analysts' prepayment projections. This is most noticeable in the premium coupons.

Currently, September speeds are forecast to slow 11% to13% in 4.5% through moderately seasoned 5.5% coupons. Speeds on more seasoned 5.5s through 6.5s range from 9% slower to 2% slower, respectively, versus previous expectations of 10% to 5% slower compared to August's levels.

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