Three to four years removed from the time non-Agency RMBS and housing markets began to collapse, this article provides a historical performance update of the subprime loan sector for vintage years 1997 through 2008. Performance of the 2005, 2006, and 2007 vintages is far and away worse than for any other year, even prior to 2000 when subprime lending was still fairly new. In addition, the extent of negative equity in the borrower repayment pipeline for never-modified and at-least-once-modified subprime loans for the 2005, 2006 and 2007 vintages is measured. Given the extreme and broad corrections in residential property prices since approximately mid-2006, the mortgage repayment struggles of borrowers, and the intended effects of loan-modifications, negative equity density has been pushed to the performing and early-stage delinquency end of the pipeline. That is, modifications have resulted in a larger share of performing (active and current) borrowers with significantly more negative equity than otherwise would be the case had a loan modification not occurred.

Subprime Update

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