Hindered by the loss of three buyers and beset with a nearly year-long string of bad luck, a $62.5 million MBS deal from Costa Rica's Banco Interfin and Banco San Jose - long slated to be the first mortgage deal out of the country - may lose that title to another MBS being prepared by Corporacin Banex, which has its own set of problems, sources say.
Of course, market participants for Latin American transactions always take the timing of deals with a grain of salt; to be sure, both MBS deals have been stalled for a long time, in part as a result of the Argentine crisis. However, the Banex transaction, led by JPMorgan and in its preliminary stages, may beat the Interfin/San Jose deal to the punch. "It's a viable deal and I think it will go forward," said one analyst.
Still, both deals have had their share of problems. According to some sources, the Banex MBS was shelved for 2001 (see ASR 8/20/01), mostly due to economic conditions and the contagion effect from Argentina. The offering is said to feature a structure similar to that of the Banco Interfin deal.
Meanwhile, sources from Florida-based Raymond James, who led the Interfin MBS, agree that their deal suffered from a variety of obstacles as well. Despite the Argentine crisis, the transaction, which carries a political risk insurance policy from Overseas Private Investment Corp. and a wrap from XL Capital Assurance, had circled prior to the events of Sept. 11 but suffered the loss of the three buyers after the terrorist attacks. The buyers were lost as a result of general concerns about monoline insurers and insurance companies, along with the uncomfortable idea of global exposure, one source said.
However, according to Raymond James, the deal is now expected to come to market some time during the third week of May - though investors in Latin America are often wary of such near-term predictions.