It may not be clear when the private-label securitized market will come back, but the developments that will likely shape it are coming into focus: the GSEs and the pending qualified residential mortgage (QRM) definition/risk retention regulation.

Not only the GSEs themselves but also their potential reform are factors, but in the case of the latter it is probably a more long-term one. As Securities Industry and Financial Markets Association (SIFMA) president and CEO Tim Ryan noted during a question-and-answer session at the group’s meeting last week, a year and a half or even two years from now GSE reform still could be a discussion topic because it is not “addressed fundamentally” in Dodd-Frank.

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