Fitch Ratings has identified ‘A-’ as lowest rating for Italy at which triple-A ratings for structured deals from the country would be possible, the agency said in a release.
The country now stands at ‘A+.’
The agency has already established a cap of six notches to the boost that a securitization in a eurozone country can achieve above the local currency IDR of its country of domicile.
“Fitch’s rating assumptions for Italian structured finance transactions reflect the agency’s current opinion regarding the probability and severity of an Italian recession,” the agency said. “However, these assumptions may change with any re-assessment of macroeconomic prospects.”
Despite the country’s gloomy outlook, the agency noted that Italian ABS have performed better than the European average, and that the country did not go through a real estate bubble as did other Western European country.
Fitch has 102 outstanding ‘AAAsf’ ratings in Italy, with a notional value of about €73 billion. The bulk is RMBS, with 71 ratings and about €67 billion of debt outstanding.