The delinquency rate in November jumped 35 basis points overall, which is the largest increase since May 2010, TreppWire reported.
This considerable increaase places the percentage of loans 30+ days delinquent, in foreclosure or REO back up to 8.93%. This is the second highest ever after September's results at 9.05%.
According to TreppWire, the jump in the rate comes despite having new issues beginning to make their way into the calculation. These new transactions, which theoretically should have low delinquencies for a while, will push the rate downward.
TreppWire has been highlighting the leveling off of the delinquency rate for U.S. commercial real estate loans backing CMBS. Starting in June, what had been a 40 basis point rise every month began to turn into 10 to 20 basis point increases.
In October, came the first delinquency rate dip in more than a year prompting many market observers, including Trepp, to believe that the peak was close.
TreppWire frequently said, however, that with special servicers becoming more adept at processing troubled loans, the delinquency rate would continue to experience some downward pressure.
"The November numbers throw cold water on the enthusiasm that's built up over the last six months," according to TreppWire. "It would not surprise us very much if the rate continues to bounce around.
As they previously noted, the considerable drop in the October delinquency rate was a result ofthe resolution of the Extended Stay Hotels loan. Before the resolution, that loan
accounted for 50 basis points in the delinquency calculation. Also, once the $3 billion
Stuyvesant Town loan is resolved, there will be an added 40 basis points of delinquencies removed in one instance, TreppWire said.
The rate of increase has averaged 29 basis points per month in the prior 12 months (after taking out the Stuyvesant Town effect in March and the Extended Stay Hotels impact in October).
Meanwhile, TreppWire reported that the delinquency rate for seriously impaired loans has also risen. The percentage of loans seriously delinquent (60+ days delinquent, in foreclosure, REO or non-performing balloons) is currently at 8.13%, which is an increase of 17 basis points, TreppWire said.
