CMBS primary issuance won’t pick-up again until September, according to Barclays.
The Wells Fargo/Societe General $716 million WFCM 2015-SG1 that priced last Tuesday is expected to be the last deal to price in the month of August.
Issuance is expected to pick up again next month, with approximately $8 billion of CMBS slated to come to market. Analysts at Barclays stated in a report today that up next are a $1.4 billion CMBS secured by 11 Madison Avenue in New York City; a $850 million conduit secured by a retail portfolio; and three smaller single asset/ single borrower, floating rate transactions totaling $770 million.
Pricing could remain under pressure given the shortened month, which will be truncated by both the Labor Day holiday weekend and Information Management Network’s annual ABS East conference in Miami in the middle of the month. “Additionally, there is considerable uncertainty whether the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates on September 17 for the first time since 2006, and the potential volatility leading up to and after the announcement could make investors skittish when faced with the large amount of supply,” stated Barclays analysts.
WFCM 2015-SG1 priced at the wider levels paid by all of the early August CMBS conduits. The 10-year, benchmark, super-senior, triple-A rated, class A-4 notes priced at swaps plus 120 basis points and the triple-B minus rated, D tranche priced at swaps plus 440 basis points.
However, Barclays stated that pricing can still potentially rally in September after a long summer selloff "but it will take a change in broader market sentiment to a risk-on environment".