Ambac Financial Services faces an uphill battle in convincing a court that the Bay Area Toll Authority (BATA) shorted it by $50 million on swap termination payments, securities lawyers and swap advisers said this week.

The company sued BATA in federal court earlier this month, alleging that the toll bridge operator didn't get firm, actionable market quotes for the swaps it terminated after Ambac's credit rating fell to junk. Ambac said loss calculations show that BATA owed $156.6 million, not the $104.6 million BATA paid to terminate the swaps.

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