Today's Freddie Mac mortgage rate survey is somewhat less relevant than it would have been otherwise after yesterday's late afternoon Federal Open Market Committee statement.
The survey was done earlier in the week and yesterday's rally extending to today has likely eased rates to some extent, albeit minimally, as capacity constraints continue to limit the decline in primary mortgage rates versus secondary rates.
As BNP Paribas MBS analyst Anise Lohokare pointed out in an email, the current coupon has rallied around 85 basis points since the beginning of August while top lenders have only been able to lower rates by 12.5 to 25 basis points based on data from their Web sites.
Meanwhile, Credit Suisse analysts also stated in research that, despite the Federal Reserve's action, mortgage rates are likely to remain sticky because of the widening in primary/secondary spreads as anecdotal evidence has suggested that originators are operating at capacity.
As a result, "We estimate the one-point primary 30-year mortgage rate should drop by roughly 10 basis points to 4.05 based on a 2.97% current coupon," the analysts said.
For the week ending Sept. 22, the 30-year fixed mortgage rate was unchanged at 4.09%, while 15-year rates set a new low of 3.29% from 3.30% last week.
Meanwhile, 5/1 hybrid and one-year ARM rates increased three and one basis point, respectively, to 3.02% and 2.82%.
Many borrowers underlying the 4.5% and 5.0% coupons will be the primary beneficiaries of the Fed's action as they are of strong credits and will be the easiest for lenders to refi.
Meanwhile, borrowers underlying the higher coupons remain credit impaired and need some easing or expansion of HARP in order to take advantage of even lower rates that are coming between Operation Twist and Fed's agency MBS buying.
