Commercial lending

The Dallas-based bank swung to a loss in the third quarter after reclassifying a large bundle of multifamily loans that it plans to offload under a recently announced strategy pivot.

The average size of a Small Business Administration 7(a) loan has fallen to just over $400,000, a level last reached in 2017, according to agency statistics.

Affiliates of real estate company Tishman Speyer and investment firm Henry Crown & Co. are selling $3.4 billion of commercial mortgage-backed securities in a deal that's expected to price Thursday.

As the commercial real estate industry sputters along, lenders, investors and analysts are putting less stock in loan-to-value ratios, a longtime bellwether of risk.

Anticipated interest rate cuts could help stressed borrowers, but such a shift in monetary policy may curb lending income.

The regional bank has already seen a large reduction in "criticized" loans, and it expects that trend to pick up as lower borrowing costs alleviate the pain in the commercial real estate sector.

The Minneapolis-based banking giant is enjoying its biggest year ever for 7(a) lending, with volume up 40%, as borrowers "are still coming to us," its SBA chief said.

Prophecies about a wave of bank failures caused by sickly CRE loans haven't yet come true. But there are still plenty of caution signs in a saga that will take years to play out.

Lower interest rates could bolster loan demand, credit quality and securities portfolios. But they could also curb lending profitability faster than they ease deposit costs, crimping net interest margins and eating into near-term profits.

Increased demand from borrowers may hinge on Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell and his colleagues cutting interest rates this fall.