NEW YORK - The topic "Is there a mortgage bubble coming?" was once again tackled in last week's CPR & CDR Technologies conference on Prepayment and Mortgage Credit Modeling & Strategy. Based on Mortgage Bankers Association's most recent housing numbers presented at the conference, the often-discussed topic is a non-event. Participants said that real estate fundamentals still bode well for a healthy housing market in the near term.
According to the MBA, 2004 mortgage originations are currently pegged at $2.66 trillion. Though lower compared to 2003's showing of $3.81 trillion, the current year's number is still high historically speaking. Aside from this, 30-year fixed-rate mortgage rates are projected to remain in the sub-6% range through the end of the year, increasing only to 7% by next year. In other words, the housing market is expected to slow down, but not at a precipitous pace.