For the first time since the financial crisis, the market of private label commercial mortgage backed securities is more active than those deals coming from government-sponsored agencies.
In a report today, Deutsche Bank analysts said that agency commercial mortgage backeds have accounted for 55% of the total CMBS issuance of $161 billion dollars since 2009. But in the first six months of this year, the ratio flipped in favor to private label deals.
The average credit strength of transactions has also fallen each year since the crisis but the Deutsche analysts say it remains well above 2006 and 2007 levels. And the weaker credit metrics have translated into tougher standards by the rating agencies. One example is the credit enhancement they require for a triple-A rating: it has gone up 30% this year from 2012.
The analysts are predicting about $60 billion to $70 billion worth of private label CMBS issuance for this year, with a slowdown in the second half, partly because of rising rates and a lower volume of maturing deals.