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Barclays: Seasonal Weakening in Auto ABS Collateral

Aggregate prime auto loans exhibited slightly weakened performance, although remained in line with historical seasonal trends, Barclays Capital analysts said. 

The 60- or more days delinquencies rose to 0.39% from 0.38% last month versus April's low for the year of 0.33%.

Meanwhile, Barclays analysts said that the prime annualized net losses also went up this month, to 0.38% from 0.31%. But, the year-over-year prime auto loan delinquencies have dipped 24.5% and annualized net losses have decreased 34.9%, analysts said.

In terms of the non-prime auto loan sector, aggregate performance was mixed, although still within seasonal trends. The delinquencies of 60- or more days rose four basis points to 3.36%, after increasing 24 basis points to 3.32% last month.

But, the annualized net losses dropped slightly, dipping three basis points to 5.51% from 5.54% the prior month. Year-over-year non-prime auto loan delinquencies have gone up 11.2%, although annualized net losses have dipped 10.8%, Barclays analysts said.

In terms of vintages, performance of prime and non-prime retail auto collateral backing deals from 2009-2012 is still strong versus earlier deals, Barclays analysts said. They expect robust collateral performance within seasonal trends to remain in the sector with  the economy still slowly recovering.

Analysts are still neutral on senior prime retail auto ABS. They maintain their overweight on retail auto subordinates and the off-the-run auto-related sectors of rental fleet and fleet lease ABS.

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