The earthquake that hit Turkey in August is the latest disaster for the tourist industry, after the arrest of Abdullah Ocalan and the consequent threats from the Kurdistan workers party, the PKK, had combined with the war in Kosovo to lead to a downturn in tourist visits to the country.

What impact all this will have on Turkey's securitization is far from clear, but Mitchell Lench, head of Duff & Phelps' (DCR) Emerging Markets Structured Finance Group for Eastern and Central Europe, the Middle East and Africa, expects the long-term effect to be slight. "My own feeling is that we will probably see some decline in the short term and then probably a rebound," he said. "It's a perception issue; the tourist mentality is to react when they hear something negative, but that will resolve itself in the future."

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