The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) reported this morning that the seasonally adjusted MBA Refinancing Index remained steady at 3250.6 from 3296.7 the week prior.

In a report released today, JPMorgan Securities said that the almost unchanged number on the Index was in-line with expectations. Analysts from the firm expect the Refi Index to stay in the low 3000s  next week, probably coming in slightly slower.

Meanwhile, the seasonally adjusted Purchase Index dropped marginally by 1.7% to 444, which is still 16% higher compared to last year’s level. It decreased from 451.6 the prior week. The ARM share of applications (by dollar volume) is still quite high, well above 40%.

The firm mentioned that the January prepayment report is due out tomorrow night. The expected drop in speeds should be primarily caused by two fewer business days and winter seasonals. Analysts expect a 10% to 15% drop in discount speeds, with premiums down approximately 20% to 25%. But JPMorgan still predicts a rather muted slowdown in 2003 discounts since they are still climbing the seasoning ramp.


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