Fixed mortgage rates slipped to new record lows in the week ending July 22. 

Freddie Mac reported that 30-year fixed mortgage rates averaged 4.56% with an average 0.7-point compared with  4.57% last week. This puts the no-point rate at about 4.74%. Meanwhile, 15-year fixed mortgage rates declined three basis points to 4.03%.

Adjustable rates were also lower for the week with 5/1 hybrid ARMs dropping six basis points to 3.79%, while one-year ARM rates fell four basis points to 3.70%. 

Freddie Mac Chief Economist Frank Nothaft attributed the declines in mortgage rates to lower confidence in the strength of the economic recovery based on the recent economic news. 

With mortgage rates in record low territory, it is inevitable that prepayment speeds are likely to pick up. 

Credit Suisse analysts believe, however, that speed increases are likely to be gradual, due to pipeline congestion, "with anecdotal reports of 90-day locks becoming more common." 

Coupons and vintage most at risk for refinancing are 2009 4.5s and 5s given their excellent credit quality. 

Currently, FNMA 30-year MBS speeds are projected to increase 15% in August (reported in September) with the largest percentage increases in 5% and 5.5s% coupons, particularly 2009s. 

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