Overall, the CMBS market could be positioned for more growth this year, as investors flock to the sector's stable track record and, in some cases, relatively cheap pricing. Global issuance last year reached $256 billion, up from $138 billion in 2004. And this year, high-end forecasts call for global issuance to reach some $320 billion, according to Citigroup Global Markets.
Issuance within the U.S., however, could be set for a slight decline. In a conference call held last week, RBS Greenwich Capital said it is anticipating CMBS issuance to decline within the U.S. in 2006. U.S. issuance reached $167 billion in 2005, which was a 75% increase from 2004. But, the firm is forecasting a 6% dip in issuance this year to $157 billion. According to RBS, "gold mine fever" within the commercial real estate market hit its peak in 2005. Additionally, a smaller portion of refinancings will help to keep issuance volume down.